Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Coastal Businesses with a Focus on the Fish Farming Industry in Qeshm Island

Objective: In addition to high biodiversity, coasts have extensive potential for economic activities, including fisheries, tourism, renewable energy, and maritime transportation. Fish farming, as one of the important economic activities in coastal areas, plays a key role in ensuring food security, creating employment, and sustainable development. Qeshm Island has a high potential for the development of this industry due to its special geographical location, access to rich marine resources, and suitable climatic conditions. However, improper exploitation and lack of comprehensive planning can lead to threats such as the destruction of marine ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, and negative social consequences. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to examine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the fish farming industry on Qeshm Island using a strategic analysis approach and using tools such as the SWOT matrix.
Method: Initially, fish farming businesses in the study area were identified, and then purposeful sampling was conducted from the statistical population (local operators) to produce the required data. The statistical population of the present study included activists and experts in the field of coastal businesses and fish farming on Qeshm Island, which includes approximately 84 production units. Due to access limitations and the size of the target population, sampling was conducted using purposive (non-random) sampling to select individuals with experience and knowledge related to the research topic (individuals who have had more than 5 years of relevant activity in this field). Finally, 23 valid questionnaires were completed and used for data analysis. This sampling allowed the research to provide an effective strategic analysis with precision and focus on the target group. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed using the opinions of experts in the field of fisheries and aquaculture, ensuring that the questions well covered the concepts related to SWOT analysis. The reliability of the questionnaire was also calculated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, which was 89%, indicating the stability and appropriate coordination of the questions. Next, using a matrix of internal and external factors, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the fish farming business on Qeshm Island were extracted and analyzed through the SWOT matrix, and the final strategies were prioritized using the QSPM approach.
Results: Based on the results obtained - expanding the sale of organic fish and diverse products (SO1) and organic fish farming with modern technology (SO1), as the first priority, environmental management and water quality monitoring (WO1) and branding and online sales of products (SO2) as the second priority, Improving transportation and maintenance infrastructure (ST2) was identified as the third priority, technical training and attracting skilled labor (ST1) and reducing costs with advanced equipment (WT1), government support and reforming export laws (WT2) as the fourth priority, and finally cooperation for climate change adaptation (WO2) as the fifth priority.
Conclusion: Fish farming on Qeshm Island, as one of the most important economic and employment generating capacities in the coastal areas of the country, plays a key role in the sustainable development of this region. Studies show that the privileged geographical location, rich natural resources, and institutional support have provided valuable opportunities for the growth and expansion of this industry. On the other hand, challenges such as lack of modern technologies, weak infrastructure, environmental pressures, and threats from climate change can jeopardize its continuity and sustainability. Accordingly, the future development of the fish farming industry in Qeshm requires comprehensive and sustainable strategies. Overall, the results of this study emphasize that only by adopting a strategic and forward-looking approach can existing capacities be efficiently exploited while simultaneously ensuring economic, social, and environmental benefits for present and future generations. This will not only help promote Qeshm's position in the aquaculture industry, but it can also provide a model for the sustainable development of coastal businesses in other regions of the country.