Cognitive legitimacy and successful investment in ICO; a personality trait approach

 Objective:
The primary objective of this research is to identify and analyze the factors affecting the success of startups, with a specific focus on the distinct personality traits of investors and their impact on investment decisions in initial coin offering. This study aims to investigate how the personality traits of neuroticism and openness to experience influence investment decisions and to explore the role of cognitive legitimacy in moderating these relationships. By integrating theories of personality and legitimacy, this research seeks to provide a deeper understanding of the psychological factors that drive investment behaviors in the context of initial coin offerings (ICOs).
 
 Method:
This study employs a phenomenological research design, leveraging qualitative and quantitative methods to explore the subjective experiences of investors in initial coin offering. The research follows a structured approach encompassing the following steps:
A two-stage sampling process was adopted. In the first stage, tokens from ICOs conducted between 2020 and 2022 were selected using simple random sampling. Reliable sources such as Coinmarketcap.com, Crunchbase.com, and ICOcrunch.com provided the list of tokens. A random selection program written in Python was utilized to choose 40 sample tokens from this list, ensuring an unbiased representation.
Data on investment decisions were collected through a standard questionnaire distributed to a large and diverse sample of investors. The questionnaire was shared via prominent Telegram channels which collectively cover a broad international investor base.
Neuroticism and Openness to Experience traits were measured using a standardized Big Five personality factors questionnaire. Cognitive Legitimacy was assessed through the analysis of social media interactions, particularly on Twitter (X). A developer-created account was used to gather data on tweets containing specific keywords related to the ICOs. The data included tweet content, likes, retweets, user IDs, follower counts, and tweet sentiments categorized as positive, neutral, or negative. Sentiment analysis was performed using the RoBERTa pre-trained language model, known for its high accuracy in text classification tasks.
WarpPLS software was employed to conduct structural equation modeling (SEM), allowing for the examination of complex relationships between variables. The analysis focused on the direct effects of neuroticism and openness to experience on investment decisions, and the moderating effect of cognitive legitimacy. Reliability was tested using Average Variance Extracted (AVE), with thresholds set to ensure convergent validity.
 Results:
The study yielded several key findings that highlight the interplay between personality traits, cognitive legitimacy, and investment decisions:

Impact of Neuroticism:

   - High levels of neuroticism were found to have a significant negative impact on investment decisions in successful ICOs. Investors characterized by high neuroticism exhibited tendencies towards risk aversion, pessimism, and lower trust in new ventures, making them less likely to participate in these offerings.

Impact of Openness to Experience:

   - Conversely, investors with high openness to experience were more inclined to invest in innovative and novel projects. This personality trait positively correlated with investment decisions, as these individuals are typically more open to risk-taking and exploring new opportunities.

Role of Cognitive Legitimacy:

   - Cognitive legitimacy significantly enhanced investment decisions. Startups that demonstrated high cognitive legitimacy through transparent and credible actions on social media were more successful in attracting investors. However, cognitive legitimacy did not act as a moderating variable between personality traits and investment decisions but had a strong direct effect on increasing investment decisions.
Hypotheses Testing:
- H1: High neuroticism leads to a decrease in investment in successful initial offerings. (Confirmed)
- H2: Higher cognitive legitimacy of a business leads to more investment in successful products. (Confirmed)
- H3: Cognitive legitimacy moderates the relationship between neuroticism and investment in successful products. (Rejected)
- H4: Openness to experience leads to increased investment in successful initial offerings. (Confirmed)
- H5: Cognitive legitimacy moderates the relationship between openness to experience and investment in successful ventures. (Rejected)
 
 Conclusion:
The research concludes that personality traits, particularly neuroticism and openness to experience, play a crucial role in shaping investment decisions in the context of crowdfunding. Neuroticism negatively influences investment decisions, making individuals with this trait less likely to invest in new ventures. In contrast, openness to experience has a positive impact, with such individuals being more inclined towards innovative investments.
Cognitive legitimacy emerged as a vital factor for attracting investments. Startups that can build strong cognitive legitimacy by maintaining transparency and credibility on social media are more likely to succeed in their fundraising efforts. Although cognitive legitimacy does not moderate the relationship between personality traits and investment decisions, its direct positive impact on investment decisions underscores its importance.
Implications for Practice:
- For Startups: Developing and maintaining cognitive legitimacy through transparent and credible communication on social media is essential for attracting a diverse investor base. Understanding the personality traits of potential investors can help tailor communication strategies to better engage with them.
- For Researchers: The study opens new avenues for exploring the impact of other personality traits and forms of legitimacy on investment decisions. Future research could expand the scope to include traits such as extraversion and conscientiousness, and investigate the effects of moral and pragmatic legitimacy.
The study focuses on two specific personality traits, suggesting a need for future research to consider a broader range of traits. Additionally, exploring other forms of legitimacy, such as moral or pragmatic legitimacy, could provide a more comprehensive understanding of their impact on investment decisions. Longitudinal studies are recommended to examine how these relationships evolve over time, especially in the dynamic and rapidly changing ICO market.
In summary, this research highlights the significant role of personality traits and cognitive legitimacy in influencing investment decisions in the context of crowdfunding. The findings provide valuable insights for startups and campaign developers seeking to enhance their legitimacy and attract diverse investor profiles. The study contributes to the growing field of financial psychology and offers practical recommendations for improving fundraising strategies in the digital age.